ABSTRACT
Abstract Background Stroke is one of the major causes of disability and mortality worldwide. Up to 30% of individuals who experience stroke die within 30 days, and more than 50% of those who survive will have some degree of disability. There are some predetermining factors based on admission data that could be used to objectively assess the odds of poor outcomes, including the Ischemic Stroke Predictive Risk Score (IScore). Objective To analyze and validate the IScore in patients undergoing intravenous thrombolysis for stroke and compare the results of this predictor with actual death and disability outcomes. Methods In a retrospective study, data were collected from a database housed at the Stroke Unit of the Teaching Hospital of Universidade Federal do Paraná, Southern Brazil. The IScore was applied to admission data from 239 patients, and the results were compared with actual outcomes (death and disability) within 30 days and 1 year after the stroke event. Data analysis was performed using an analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the IScore in the study population. Results The IScore demonstrated moderate sensitivity and high specificity in patients with stroke who underwent thrombolysis when evaluated after 30 days and 1 year of the event. Conclusions The IScore can be applied to in stroke patients undergoing thrombolysis; therefore, it may be used as an objective prognostic tool to guide clinical decision-making. Understanding the prognosis of patients in the acute phase can assist clinicians in making the best therapeutic decisions and enable better end-of-life care.
Resumo Antecedentes O acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) é uma das principais causas de morte e incapacidade no mundo. Até 30% dos indivíduos evoluem a óbito nos primeiros 30 dias. Dos sobreviventes, mais da metade ficam com alguma sequela. Certas variáveis identificadas já na admissão podem sinalizar maior risco de desfecho desfavorável. Uma dessas ferramentas prognósticas é a Escala de Previsão de Riscos de AVC Isquêmico (Ischemic Stroke Predictive Risk Score, IScore, em inglês). Objetivo Analisar e validar a aplicação do IScore em pacientes com AVC isquêmico submetidos a trombólise endovenosa e comparar os resultados obtidos com a aplicação da escala aos verdadeiros desfechos de morte e incapacidade funcional. Métodos Trata-se de um estudo retrospectivo, cujos dados foram obtidos do banco de dados da Unidade de AVC do Hospital de Clínicas da Universidade Federal do Paraná. A IScore foi aplicada conforme os dados de admissão de 239 pacientes. Os pacientes foram acompanhados ambulatorialmente, e os resultados da escala foram comparados aos desfechos reais de mortalidade e incapacidade. Os resultados foram demonstrados por meio da curva característica de operação do receptor (receiver operating characteristic, ROC, em inglês) para determinar sensibilidade e especificidade da escala. Resultados Em pacientes com AVC submetidos a trombólise, a IScore demonstrou moderada sensibilidade e alta especificidade para predizer desfechos tanto de óbito quanto de incapacidade, nos intervalos de 30 dias e 1 ano após o evento. Conclusões A IScore pode ser aplicada em pacientes com AVC isquêmico, na população específica submetida a trombólise; portanto, pode ser usada como uma ferramenta prognóstica útil, que pode guiar decisões terapêuticas. Entender o prognóstico de paciente na fase aguda pode auxiliar os clínicos a fazer as melhores decisões terapêuticas e possibilitar melhores cuidados ao fim da vida.
ABSTRACT
Abstract Background: Stroke related to atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high recurrence and mortality rates. Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) is associated with fewer vascular risk factors, less disability, and a high recurrence rate. Objective: To compare risk factors, functional outcomes and the occurrence of primary endpoint (a composite of recurrent stroke, cardiovascular death, and myocardial infarction) between AF stroke and ESUS patients. Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted including all consecutive patients with first-ever ischemic stroke admitted to the Hospital de Clinicas (Clinical Hospital) of the Federal University of Paraná from October 2012 to January 2017 (n=554). There were 61 patients with stroke due to AF and 43 due to ESUS. Both groups were compared for demographic characteristics and vascular risk factors. Logistic regression models were performed to assess the impact of each variable on the primary endpoint in a 12-month follow-up. Statistical significance was considered for p-values < 0.05. Results: ESUS patients, as compared to AF patients, were younger and more likely to be smokers. ESUS patients presented a mean CHADS2VASc score of 4, while the AF group presented a score of 5 (p <0.001). The primary endpoint was observed in 9 (20.9%) ESUS and 11 (18.0%) AF patients over a 12-month period (p=0.802). Higher glucose levels upon hospital admission (p=0.020) and a higher modified Rankin Scale upon hospital discharge (p=0.020) were predictors of the primary endpoint occurrence. Conclusion: AF and ESUS stroke patients presented very similar independence rates upon hospital discharge and outcomes after 12 months, despite some baseline differences, including stroke recurrence, vascular death, and myocardial infarction.